[Nano]

Discuss.

This post has been edited by Nano: 22 July 2010 - 01:44 AM

[Nano]

top 4 picks look to be matter of preference from mocks I've seen/done.

I know CJ is more often the top guy but I'm down on him. He fits bill for the 370 f/carry research I've done where 75% of RBs who have hit the benchmark decrease by 20% in production or more (as much as 43% decrease by 40%+)

Guy I have at #1 is AP: even if Favre comes back I see (1)Favre not having such a good year, as last yr was one of his best ever, (2)Vikes will lean on AP more as they did in 08. Even in ppr AP showed last yr he can still contribute finishing with a respectable 43recs

The guy I didn't take at #3 has been most consistent top10 guy over past few years and see him having another solid year. But went with Rice as IMO, his floor isn't that low compared to 'other rb', but Rice's ceiling could be real high. I don't expect those recs and attached yds, but think he makes it up with more carries (and the attached yds) and as much as 12-14tds.

[Rholio]

Agree, the top four are pretty much set. I'm more than happy with MJD, as I think he'll finish top 2 this year.

[vardaski]

I get stuck in the spot where I'm tempted to go WR but I like two more RBs before I drop a tier in production so I took Gore. Like SF's committment to run the ball this year and then you look at the schedule he has. His division alone is not that great at stopping the run and then they have some pretty easy non-conference games.

I am also in the camp of taking AP first but can't fault CJ as first pick either. I like Ray Rice at 3. He can catch the ball quite well and I believe he becomes more dominant where the Ravens can't take him out near the goal line. Don't think McGahee vultures near as many TDs this year.

MJD had been good for several years my only issue is Jax needs to up grade their offense overall.

[Rock Hard]

Was hoping Gore would fall to me but of course he didn't. Been a long-time AJ owner and am happy to have him on my roster (Although this is the highest I've ever picked him up, at 1.06). Still, he's a stud.

[Nano]

ok, let me say now: this is about learning for all of us. more commentary the better. let's keep it respectable but also don't take any criticism personal. If we all felt the same about all players FF wouldn't be much fun.

I'm not high on Gore or Sjax this year...each has only had 1 season where they did not miss time. And particular Gore who always seems to fall short of expectations. With that said, their value is middle 1st rnd so can't fault the picks. If it were me I'd either trade out of the mid 1st or pick one of these guys and look to trade them during year.

AJ just about consensus #1 WR in mocks I've seen/done...and deservedly so. Overall and particularly in ppr. Solid pick at middle of 1st IMO.

[Nano]

Discuss.

[Portis26]

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

[vardaski]

Portis26, on 22 July 2010 - 06:23 AM, said:

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

I think CJ and AP are in their own tier. I'd take either but favor AP. I'm ready for the mockery I can handle it.

[Nano]

Portis26, on 22 July 2010 - 05:23 AM, said:

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

LOL, I'll add that I don't fault the pick either. His value is there. Personally would just go another way.

[Rholio]

Portis26, on 22 July 2010 - 08:23 AM, said:

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

CJ makes me very happy I don't have the top pick in any league this year. Personally, I think he finishes 5th.

[loose circuits]

Turner was a tough one here especially in PPR. However, all reports are that he's taken this off season very serious and is in much better condition. Hopefully the TD's make up for the lack of receptions...or maybe he'll learn to catch this season

oh yeah, sorry for the hold up. Worked a 13 hour day yesterday in the heat (no A/C in my trucks) and went right to Bible study afterwards. Didn't have energy to sign in when I got home...

This post has been edited by loose circuits: 23 July 2010 - 12:09 AM

[Rholio]

loose circuits, on 22 July 2010 - 08:07 PM, said:

Turner was a tough one here especially in PPR. However, all reports are that he's taken this off season very serious and is in much better condition. Hopefully the TD's make up for the lack of receptions...or maybe he'll learn to catch this season

oh yeah, sorry for the hold up. Worked a 13 hour day yesterday in the heat (no A/C in my trucks) and went right to Bible study afterwards. Didn't have energy to sign in when I got home...

Turner is a hard one to pass up. The lack of receptions hurts, but he is a TD machine when healthy. I think he'll have a big year.

[vardaski]

Rholio, on 22 July 2010 - 06:10 PM, said:

loose circuits, on 22 July 2010 - 08:07 PM, said:

Turner was a tough one here especially in PPR. However, all reports are that he's taken this off season very serious and is in much better condition. Hopefully the TD's make up for the lack of receptions...or maybe he'll learn to catch this season

oh yeah, sorry for the hold up. Worked a 13 hour day yesterday in the heat (no A/C in my trucks) and went right to Bible study afterwards. Didn't have energy to sign in when I got home...

Turner is a hard one to pass up. The lack of receptions hurts, but he is a TD machine when healthy. I think he'll have a big year.

Along with AJ I pondered Turner before taking Gore. In non-ppr leagues i think that is the way I'd go. If Turner continues his TD pace then it won't matter that he can't catch.

[einstein2u]

9 is a tough pick. went with dwill who will get carries. If stewart goes down, u have a monster......

[zackattack]

Moss was the best available player to me. WR was the only way for me to go. After the top 6 RB's I am not that big a fan of the rest. Moss is playing for money too. Straight cold cash homey!

[Nano]

not going to be anal, but just one reminder...try to stay with the pick format: this will be good learning for newbies to the board (and ff) who may not know who 'DWill' is.

Turner
Another RB not high on, but his value is there and solid pick if you like him.

Moss
Solid pick and guy I have #2 on my board amongst WRs...expect nice year from his qb, he's in contract year, elite wrs can stay very productive at older age. All pt to nice year from him IMO.

This post has been edited by Nano: 23 July 2010 - 06:14 AM

[Portis26]

vardaski, on 22 July 2010 - 09:53 AM, said:

Portis26, on 22 July 2010 - 06:23 AM, said:

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

I think CJ and AP are in their own tier. I'd take either but favor AP. I'm ready for the mockery I can handle it.

CJ had almost 1000 yds more then Peterson from the LOS

[Texasmouth]

Went with Marshall. Could have been the #1 WR in fantasy last year if he didnt miss the last game. New team with a genius running the show in Sporano. Will get the most out of Marshall and he will be a stud.


Sorry about the hold up. I did mention in the initial sign up that I would be gone Tue-Thur for a business trip.

[Nano]

Portis26, on 23 July 2010 - 02:10 PM, said:

vardaski, on 22 July 2010 - 09:53 AM, said:

Portis26, on 22 July 2010 - 06:23 AM, said:

Sometimes we over think too much - CJ is easily the top of this year draft board. If u pass on him; be prepared for tons of mockery from friends & family. You also may be the butt of all jokes for years to come.

Vote "CJ" as your #1 fantasy pick in 2010

I think CJ and AP are in their own tier. I'd take either but favor AP. I'm ready for the mockery I can handle it.

CJ had almost 1000 yds more then Peterson from the LOS

Actully closer to 700yds...he did eclipse 2000yds rushing...and only one time's that's happened has rb not dropped to about half the yds the following year (only sanders who still dropped 500yds):
http://www.pro-footb...ngle_season.htm

Add that I believe half his tds were from 50yds+...I know that's his strength...ability to go distance any given play, but really see it happening that many times again?

I'm posting my update to my 370 f/carry research later this week as well, which also doesn't bode well for him.

Again, can't fault pick based on preference but just think history says he will fall back to pack and don't think he's far and away the consensus #1 by any stretch IMO.

This post has been edited by Nano: 24 July 2010 - 02:05 AM

[Nano]

bumpage

[Texasmouth]

I am interested to see which RB will fall to me at 3.11 and 4.02 now.

I love the combo of Marshall and Fitz in a PPR.

[zackattack]

I took the same strategy as TM. I grabbed Moss and White with the first 2 picks. I took Wayne in the last one but passed this time. The Colts seem to rest thier starters late in the year. I had him in 2 money leagues last year and it can be painful. I know he wants more $$ too.

White is due for a career year. I think he was second in targets last year.

[Texasmouth]

zackattack, on 24 July 2010 - 05:38 AM, said:

I took the same strategy as TM. I grabbed Moss and White with the first 2 picks. I took Wayne in the last one but passed this time. The Colts seem to rest thier starters late in the year. I had him in 2 money leagues last year and it can be painful. I know he wants more $$ too.

White is due for a career year. I think he was second in targets last year.

That is one thing that I am actually worried about is that someone in a position close to me is going to have the same game plan as me...we will be fighting for RB at the bottom of 3 and 4.

[einstein2u]

Calvin Johnson is going to have a good year. Really think Strafford is going to surprise people this year and push toward being a top 12 qb. All of this points toward Calvin having a great year. We already know what Calvin can with crappy qbs.

[Rock Hard]

OK, I know taking a QB at this point in the draft may have been a little early, but for sure Drew is a stud and I'm happy having him on my roster.

[loose circuits]

einstein2u, on 24 July 2010 - 01:01 PM, said:

Calvin Johnson is going to have a good year. Really think Strafford is going to surprise people this year and push toward being a top 12 qb. All of this points toward Calvin having a great year. We already know what Calvin can with crappy qbs.

I considered him with my 1st pick. I knew he was gonna fall 1 spot short

Oh well, I like Charles & Turner as guys that can take over games and win them for me single handedly. We'll see what kind of WR's I end up with

[frybry02]

I haven't done much research(none in fact) this year but looking at the first 2 rounds of your mock draft, I have come to one conclusion . . . RBs seem real shallow this year. A lot of RBs look like they will be drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with issues and questions. I am sure they won't be by end of year because some RBs will emerge as they always do; hopefully we draft the right ones.

That is scary

[Texasmouth]

I think in a ppr you can win with two stud wr and two second tier type rb.

[Nano]

There was nice value with 2 players here at my spot and considered both but Wayne's ADP I've seen as late 1st, so getting him late 2nd I'm great with, particularly with him coming off a 100r/1200/10 year.

Other random thoughts:

Mathews and Charles are really climbing up draft boards. Like their prospects for good seasons overall, but neither locks IMO, so likely will be more expensive than I'd be willing to take them come real drafts.

Fitz/White, particularly in ppr, are solid picks there.

I don't know what to make of CJ or Austin. CJ is a monster talent, but last year showed he can't do it alone. Austin just feels like one hit wonder (though admittedly, nothing to base on other than gut) to me plus think his value drops in ppr as Cowboys look to have lots of options in passing game.

Greene is nice value there.

Brees and Rodgers great value.

This post has been edited by Nano: 25 July 2010 - 05:25 PM

[Nano]

Discuss.

[Portis26]

Brees & Rodgers are the only QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick. IMO

[Aargyle]

Portis26, on 25 July 2010 - 01:45 PM, said:

Brees & Rodgers are the only QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick. IMO

Love Rodgers. Took him as the 2nd QB in the first mock.

But I think Manning doesn't get nearly enough love around here. MVP again last year, with a great WR core intact (so many that a good WR will get left out of the mix), rarely terribly injured. I grabbed him at the end of the 2nd last year and he led me to the playoffs yet again.

I'm not saying Brees and Rodgers are worse picks, just that Manning is just as safe as they are to get you enough fantasy point to justify his selection over a top RB/WR, and let that pick linger a round later.

[chad@ffLiveWire]

Aargyle, on 25 July 2010 - 08:19 PM, said:

Portis26, on 25 July 2010 - 01:45 PM, said:

Brees & Rodgers are the only QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick. IMO

Love Rodgers. Took him as the 2nd QB in the first mock.

But I think Manning doesn't get nearly enough love around here. MVP again last year, with a great WR core intact (so many that a good WR will get left out of the mix), rarely terribly injured. I grabbed him at the end of the 2nd last year and he led me to the playoffs yet again.

I'm not saying Brees and Rodgers are worse picks, just that Manning is just as safe as they are to get you enough fantasy point to justify his selection over a top RB/WR, and let that pick linger a round later.

I won't take any of them until round 3. Nothing wrong with a round 2 pick, but that's just not my style.

[chad@ffLiveWire]

:tapsfoot:

who's up?

[Rholio]

chad@ffLiveWire, on 26 July 2010 - 11:14 PM, said:

:tapsfoot:

who's up?

dagame is up... sent him a PM about 3 1/2hrs ago. He did a good job keeping up in the last mock, so figured I'd give him a bit of extra time to get his pick in.

This post has been edited by Rholio: 27 July 2010 - 05:30 AM

[vardaski]

Rock Hard, on 24 July 2010 - 04:51 PM, said:

OK, I know taking a QB at this point in the draft may have been a little early, but for sure Drew is a stud and I'm happy having him on my roster.

I was taking him with the next pick so don't think it was too early. I think he is a steal at that point in the 2nd round.

[Portis26]

Rholio, on 27 July 2010 - 01:29 AM, said:

chad@ffLiveWire, on 26 July 2010 - 11:14 PM, said:

:tapsfoot:

who's up?

dagame is up... sent him a PM about 3 1/2hrs ago. He did a good job keeping up in the last mock, so figured I'd give him a bit of extra time to get his pick in.

I have my picks so he'll be up again

[Rholio]

Okay, made the pick for dagame.... took RB Ryan Grant. He's the top rated player available on the cheat sheet I use.

Portis26 is up.

[Nano]

I'm around and checking in frequently so can make my pick when comes back around and hopefully keep things moving.

[Portis26]

Went Beenie @ 3.1 because
A) wanted to mix it up from my last mock
B ( can be my flex (starter points) main reason I hate flex leagues ( hoarding rbs)
C) wanted a 3- headed running monster!!

This post has been edited by Portis26: 27 July 2010 - 08:43 PM

[Portis26]

Went Moreno at 2.12 because he is young and should be the center of the offense- not a bad #2

[Rholio]

Portis26, on 27 July 2010 - 04:29 PM, said:

Went Beenie @ 3.1 because
A) wanted to mix it up from my last mock
B ( can be my flex (starter points) main reason I hate flex leagues ( hoarding rbs)
C) wanted a 3- headed running monster!!

Wells isn't bad, but I'd have probably went QB or WR there with two good RBs on board already. Still, I went RB / RB / RB in the last mock and was happy with it, so good luck.

[vardaski]

Portis26, on 27 July 2010 - 02:30 PM, said:

Went Moreno at 2.12 because he is young and should be the center of the offense- not a bad #2

I like Moreno a lot and have been targeting him in the 3rd round. Don't blame you for taking him on the turn. Many people look at his overall numbers and along with the hype surrounding him believe he is a bust. Many forget his injury and reporting late during the pre-season. Think he has a monster year.

[Nano]

I don't like it considering the wr/qb options available to you here, but to each his own.

what numbers are you expecting from Wells and Moreno this year as they're in a group where I'm having hard time projecting for.

[vardaski]

Nano, on 27 July 2010 - 03:44 PM, said:

I don't like it considering the wr/qb options available to you here, but to each his own.

what numbers are you expecting from Wells and Moreno this year as they're in a group where I'm having hard time projecting for.

I don't like Wells but Moreno while a slight reach I believe will be in the top 10 at the end of the year. In fact my bold prediction is he makes the top 5.

[Texasmouth]

Was joping for moreno or wells to slip to me.

[Nano]

vardaski, on 27 July 2010 - 02:52 PM, said:

I don't like Wells but Moreno while a slight reach I believe will be in the top 10 at the end of the year. In fact my bold prediction is he makes the top 5.

Based on what?

Not ripping, seriously asking Vardaski or Portis26.

As this is what I see in Denver...
* After starting 6-0 and talk of the NFL Broncos finished 3-8, including 4 straight losses to end season.
* Vaunted d was actually horrible v run by season's end, if that continues teams will run on them, eat clock and give less time/series to offense.
* As it was, they were middle of road in just about every offense category and this year...
* The draft was a mess IMO and just don't see what they're going to do on offense considering who they could have behind center...as dont think any option can move ball consistently.

[vardaski]

Nano, on 27 July 2010 - 06:53 PM, said:

vardaski, on 27 July 2010 - 02:52 PM, said:

I don't like Wells but Moreno while a slight reach I believe will be in the top 10 at the end of the year. In fact my bold prediction is he makes the top 5.

Based on what?

Not ripping, seriously asking Vardaski or Portis26.

As this is what I see in Denver...
* After starting 6-0 and talk of the NFL Broncos finished 3-8, including 4 straight losses to end season.
* Vaunted d was actually horrible v run by season's end, if that continues teams will run on them, eat clock and give less time/series to offense.
* As it was, they were middle of road in just about every offense category and this year...
* The draft was a mess IMO and just don't see what they're going to do on offense considering who they could have behind center...as dont think any option can move ball consistently.

Nano I agree there draft was a mess and the end of their season was a mess. If you look back in the posts from last year I believe I even stated they wouldn't make the playoffs. To be honest I think McDaniels has done an absolutely terrible job and will be run out of town if not after next year then the year after next.
But this is what I see based on the fact he was hurt before the season even started with an MCL. He re-injured/tweaked that about halfway through the year. He gutted it out last year and put up not that great of numbers

Att: 247 RuY 947 Tds 7 Rec 28 ReY 243 Tds 2

Now looking at those numbers they don't look that impressive. Although 9 Tds shows me he can get into the endzone and 1200 is not bad. He compiled those numbers on 9 starts although he played most every game. He is not in a RBBC situation. He is young and we all know young runners tend to produce in the NFL plus he was highly touted but didn't live up to that billing (so I can see motivation to prove himself). Towards the end he was averaging about 3 receptions a game for about 30 yards so even if the team is behind (and I believe they will be) he will get some points in ppr with receptions. His longest run was for 36 yards but there were times where I saw flashes but frankly I don't believe his body was healthy enough and this year he will break at least on long run if not more.

I liked what I saw of him running last year even injured and what else do they have on this team to rely on this year??? 2 of his biggest games were against K.C. I think.
So lets say if healthy and getting approximately 300 attempts I can see 1200 9TDs 40 Rec 370 and 2 TDs as a floor and truthfully could see it quite possibly being better than that.

I look at the fact that 7 of the 12 top RBs don't make it back from the year before and I start thinking who is going to come out and put up those type of numbers this year. Those totals above would have put him at about 7. I could speculate the top 4 will be there again which only leaves room for 1 more on that list. I think some are obviously not going to be there again and some of those replacing them are currently back ups on teams who will get the chance to shine because of injury. So who do I believe has the chance to break into that top 12? Moreno is on that list. Also notice you point out all the downfalls of the team surrounding Moreno but look at a few of the names on there. Charles, Steven Jackson and Fred Jackson played for similar teams to what the Denver Broncos might be this year. In fact I'd argue St. Louis and Buffalo were way worse than what I expect out of Denver. You might be able to go as far as putting SF and quite possibly Jax in that same category. Either way the team doesn't have to be great to get a top 12 FFB Rb. Also Moreno finished 20th so I don't think it is that big of leap for him to finish inside the top 10

Here is last year's list in ppr format
1. CJ
2. MJD
3. Rice
4. AP
5. Gore
6. Charles
7. Fred Jackson
8. Addai
9. Williams
10. Steven Jackson
11. T. Jones
12. Grant

[Nano]

That's real good stuff Vardaski.

I don't necessarily agree with everything but you did point out some items I didn't think about or overlooked with him.