[Lukin]

https://docs.google....MkRFQzAwUDAxY3c



Let me know your thoughts. I am working on rushing numbers now, so that guys like Cam, RG3, and Tebow can get a little bump up the rankings.

[devils_advocate_oh]

[ft_ball_fan]

looks like you're assuming Matt Schaub gets hurt again (not arguing, past injuries IMO do predict future breakage)...

What's your scoring system for the points?

[Football_Scooter]

Curious about that myself - Ints must not be too bad & PaTd I assume are 4 pts?

[yoman]

Thanks for posting this!

I see Brees being great but not that great especially because of the turmoil surrounding that team. Will the temporary coaching staff make the same play calls/adjustments that might make the difference between 35 TD passes and whatever you projected.

IMHO Peyton is nearly impossible to project because we haven't really seen him throw or take a hit since the injury. If he is healthy I could easily see being a top 3 QB again.

I think Vick will put up a little bit better numbers than you are projecting unless he gets injured again.

Ditto on Schaub - I expect him to be in the lower half of the top 10 unless he gets injured.

Are you projecting an injury to Jay Cutler or do you think he will just suck? With Marshall in the fold and Martz gone I expect his numbers to go up not down. If you are using a formula for these projections does it take into account things like Cutler missing the last 5 games of the season?

[Lukin]

Scoring system is 1 pt for every 20 yards and 4 for every TD.

[Lukin]

ft_ball_fan, on 05 July 2012 - 11:35 AM, said:

looks like you're assuming Matt Schaub gets hurt again (not arguing, past injuries IMO do predict future breakage)...

What's your scoring system for the points?

I gave Schaub a slight bump this morning.

[Lukin]

yoman, on 05 July 2012 - 03:02 PM, said:

Thanks for posting this!

I see Brees being great but not that great especially because of the turmoil surrounding that team. Will the temporary coaching staff make the same play calls/adjustments that might make the difference between 35 TD passes and whatever you projected.

IMHO Peyton is nearly impossible to project because we haven't really seen him throw or take a hit since the injury. If he is healthy I could easily see being a top 3 QB again.

I think Vick will put up a little bit better numbers than you are projecting unless he gets injured again.

Ditto on Schaub - I expect him to be in the lower half of the top 10 unless he gets injured.

Are you projecting an injury to Jay Cutler or do you think he will just suck? With Marshall in the fold and Martz gone I expect his numbers to go up not down. If you are using a formula for these projections does it take into account things like Cutler missing the last 5 games of the season?

I may look into bumping Brees down slightly. Even with that, he is highly unlikely to drop from my top 5.

Peyton is nearly impossible to project. If he is 100% and plays through the entire season, he is a lock for the top 5, in my opinion.

The way Vick plays, I think you almost have to assume he is going to miss some games. If I were projecting a healthy Vick for 16 games, it would bump him up to just outside the top 10. Remember that there are no rushing stats included in this. Add those in, based on him being healthy, and he should easily be a top 5 QB. Based off of my current projections, it should move him up ~10 spots.

I bumped Schaub this morning, but only have him in the middle of the pack at #16 now.

Just bumped Cutler up a bit, but, overall, I do not like him. The formula I use does take into account missed games from last season, but I then need to do a manual adjustment to account for those games, as well. My plan is to finish up my rushing and receiving projections (possibly kicking and defense, as well), then come back and critique my formulas a bit to try and eliminate the necessary manual adjustments. I have never done season projections before and they are quite a bit different than weekly projections, so there is going to be a little trial and error. Overall, I am pretty happy with the first draft though. Only a couple players that I really feel the need to move around at this point.

[Rholio]

Nice list Lukin, thank you for sharing it with us.

I'll add my two cents, if it's worth even that much (it's the internet, there's always a free version).

1-11 look good.

I'd bump 12-14 (Big Ben, Newton, Palmer) a bit, I think they'll have better passing numbers that projected.

15-16 look good.

I'd expect more from Schaub / Yates in Houston, and Cutler / Campbell in Chicago. Hard to say who gets the numbers where, but the overall should likely be quite a bit higher for both imo.

I think Freeman bounce back under the new coach, and improved receivers... I'd bump him up as well.

A. Smith should / could finish quite a bit higher, although it's tough to project him this year. I see yours as his bottom end.

I don't see Sanchez or Kolb getting over 400 passing attempts... both will likely be benched at some point this season. They might regain the start, but they won't keep it all season imo.

Cassel will likely have more TDs than projected. They're a running team, but both RBs are good receivers.

I'd expect Flynn and Bradford to have more yards, TDs, and INTs.

You've got Moore and Tannehill for Miami, but not Garrard... I think it's a three headed monster there this year.

Overall, very nice list Lukin, thanks again.

[Stalker711]

Interesting list. Overall, I like it.

I've got a couple observations and a question or two...

1. Roethlisberger - I think you are awful light on the TDs. I don't see a terribly strong rushing attack for them this year, and bevy of receiving targets with above average speed. I expect that Haley's offense, despite the blather about ground and pound, will see #7 throw for 28-32 TDs. His three year average for INTs is 10, and his career average is 11.1 INTs, so 15 sounds a bit high, but not wildly off-target if the aerial attack I'm expecting happens.

2. Schaub - I'm just a touch of a Schaub homer, but I see a lot more productivity from him that you are projecting. I can see downgrading him for the Lins-Franc fracture from '11 to a degree, but if he's healthy, and all indications is that he is, I see a return to the ~3.8k - 4.2k yardage, 29-31 TDs, and his usual low INT rate. I really like Schaub as a 'sleeper #1' QB. Houston has had above average rushers for much of their time in the NFL, and it never hurt Schaub's production.

3. Alex Smith - I see more in every category...or a new QB. Harbaugh MUST find a way to transition this team away from a Frank Gore based offense into a true NFL caliber offense (read: better passing). Gore remains a super productive back, but as he ages, they have to ration just how much they are going to use him, and that means more Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James in the pattern. Baring a collapse from Smith, I see him hitting 3.5-3.8k yards, 30TDs, and 8-14 INTs. The offense was geared to not let him fail last year, IMO, not necessarily to let the offense soar. He'll have to take more risks down the field, and that should result in a few more INTs.

Questions:
1. Bradford - What are you seeing in Sam Bradford that you dislike? I understand he had a pretty disasterous '11 campaign, but with a cruddy OL, a major injury to his Welker type WR (Amendola), the devastation in the receiving corps in general, and high-ankle sprain, his yardage and INTs through 10 games wasn't all that bad. IIRC, he left two of those 10 games due to injury, so it wasn't even 10 full games. If you believe in averages, 16 games with those passing stats would have been >3.2k yards, 9TDs (pretty bad), and 9INTs. I really like the addition of Fisher as the HC for a major rebound for Bradford. Fisher is a disciplined coach that will get more out of this team in '12.

2. Tennessee - What are you seeing in Tennessee to merit so much passing? I still like CJ, and like the assemblage of receivers they are putting together, but 4k+ passing yards seems high. I also think the INTs are a bit low. 24TDs combined sounds about right.

I love what your analysis program does with the data.

[Dagorhir]

I dunno about Peyton being Top 3 or Top 5, he's hasn't got any familiar weapons cept for maybe Tamme.
Are any of those guys Reggie Wayne or Harrison? I know he makes 'normal' guys look good and he probably will be throwing a lot since they will be playing a playoff schedule but I just don't anticipate him being Top 5, Top 10 if healthy sure but Top 5...???

Wasn't there like 4 or 5 guys throw for 5k yards last year?
I don't think that will happen again until they play 18 games. I'd say maybe 1 or 2 QBs reach 5k this year if that.

[Stalker711]

Dagorhir, on 09 July 2012 - 07:46 PM, said:

I dunno about Peyton being Top 3 or Top 5, he's hasn't got any familiar weapons cept for maybe Tamme.
Are any of those guys Reggie Wayne or Harrison? I know he makes 'normal' guys look good and he probably will be throwing a lot since they will be playing a playoff schedule but I just don't anticipate him being Top 5, Top 10 if healthy sure but Top 5...???

Wasn't there like 4 or 5 guys throw for 5k yards last year?
I don't think that will happen again until they play 18 games. I'd say maybe 1 or 2 QBs reach 5k this year if that.

I know I'm probably in the minority, but I am expecting Decker to outproduce Thomas in Denver. Thomas might have more yards, and YPC, but Decker will get the 80+ receptions with 7-9 TDs as a quasi-sleeper pick. I don't expect anything from Tamme. No one wanted him until Denver committed to recreating the Manning offense.

[chad@ffLiveWire]

I think Matt Ryan will be in the 32-35 TD range this year. He's got great weapons around him and an off-season to work with them. Plus they will be using more no-huddle this year.

I think Ryan is a great late QB to grab this year and I likely have him in nearly every league - depending on how those top QBs get drafted.

[MTskibum]

chad@ffLiveWire, on 10 July 2012 - 03:48 AM, said:

I think Matt Ryan will be in the 32-35 TD range this year. He's got great weapons around him and an off-season to work with them. Plus they will be using more no-huddle this year.

I think Ryan is a great late QB to grab this year and I likely have him in nearly every league - depending on how those top QBs get drafted.

I have gone out of my way to acquire matt ryan in nearly every league as well, especially in dynasty leagues. Most every QB plays better from 27-34 than they do from 23-26.

Brees
Eli Manning
Brady
Ben

All game managers their first 3-5 years in the league.






I one league I recently traded.


Andrew Luck
Robert Meachem

for
Matt Ryan
Lawrence Timmons


Timmons was the #10 LBer 2 years ago. Last year his numbers were down, but he played outside linebacker over half the season. This year he is back to being an inside backer again.

This post has been edited by MTskibum: 10 July 2012 - 03:04 PM

[Texasmouth]

Lukin- quality as always.

[Rupert Pupkin]

[vardaski]

Thanks Lukin. I look forward to everything else. I'm someone who is staying away from Cam Newtion this year. I guess when you add in the rushing his jump might be really big so I'll wait to see where he ends up. I think Stafford is too high. I'm not sure he will manage another year of picture perfect help.

I also like Bradford a lot more and Fitzpatrick as well. Doesn't look like Peyton is QB #3 anymore since you did some rearranging but he can easily be in the top 5 again when the year is out. Go look back at how many year running he was in it.